North Carolina House Races Swing Blue

In Charlotte, North Carolina, the state’s congressional map shifted dramatically on Wednesday morning as Democratic candidates claimed leads in ten of fourteen U.S. House races. This potential outcome would grant Democrats a majority in the state’s House delegation for the first time in more than a decade. For the previous two years, Republicans have controlled ten of these seats. On Wednesday, even in districts that historically vote heavily Republican, no candidate led by more than two points.

The Associated Press had officially called only four races by noon. Those calls included the three safest Democratic seats in Charlotte, Raleigh, and Durham. However, Democrats held leads in six additional races where they had been considered longshots. In western North Carolina’s 11th district, Jamie Ager won by 15 points. That same district was carried by Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards by seven points in 2022.

If current leads survive provisional ballots and recounts, Democrats will hold a 10-14 majority. The last time Democrats held any majority was in 2013. A majority of 70 percent or more dates back to 1991. In six uncalled districts, Democrats maintained narrow leads. In the district held by longtime Rep. Virginia Foxx, she was losing by 99 votes as of Wednesday morning. Foxx has held that seat since 2005 and won it by 27 points in 2024.

Foxx stated in a written release that she would wait for full results. She noted that military ballots may still be outstanding and that provisional ballots must be counted. She said more than 1,000 provisional ballots were cast in that contest two years ago. The race falls within the recount threshold defined by North Carolina law. In House District 3, Republican incumbent Rep. Greg Murphy leads by 233 votes. Murphy won that district with 77 percent of the vote in 2024.

A major upset occurred in the 14th District, which includes parts of south Charlotte and rural counties such as Burke, Polk, Rutherford, Cleveland, and Gaston. Tim Moore, a longtime state House speaker and first-term congressman, was trailing political newcomer Lakesha Womack by more than two points. Moore had won the district by 16 points two years ago. He canceled a podium appearance at a campaign event on Tuesday night as results came in.

Womack owns a home outside the district and was served a felony warrant at a campaign event for a rental car allegedly never returned. Dr. Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College, said such upsets are typical in wave elections. He observed that candidates who were previously just names on the ballot became competitive. In House District 1, U.S. Rep. Don Davis maintains a three-point lead. Republicans recently redrew that district’s boundaries, moving Davis out of the area and shifting Black voters to the neighboring third district.

Under the new lines for the first district, the area voted for President Trump by 11 points in 2024. The Associated Press had not yet officially called the 14th District race as of Wednesday morning. Officials in multiple counties are counting provisional ballots and military votes that could alter these narrow margins. The final results for several districts may take weeks to confirm if recounts are initiated.