Democratic sweep reshapes foreign policy bets for Iran, Israel, and Ukraine

Democrats have swept both chambers of Congress, a result that is already altering calculations in Tehran, Jerusalem, and Kyiv. This shift in power leaves world leaders weighing how President Donald Trump will react to a weakened position at home. The election outcome has forced foreign capitals to reassess Washington’s stance on ongoing conflicts and alliances.

In Iran, officials are celebrating the Republican loss while preparing for potential military escalation. Vice President JD Vance stated on X that the war in Iran was the primary reason for the GOP defeat. Trump admitted the conflict contributed to price hikes that affected voters. Parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned that if the US betrays its public will, Tehran’s refusal will come with a nightmare. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said anyone expecting a policy shift is deeply mistaken. Reports indicate Trump is considering new strikes on Iran, though he has also told some journalists he has no immediate plans to escalate. Iran recently offered to open the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington accepted seven conditions.

Israel faces a stark change in its relationship with Washington. Trump announced he would cut off US military aid to Israel before the election results were final. Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the US, called this the end of an era for US-Israel relations. He noted that criticism of Israel has become an organizing principle for both Democratic and many Republican lawmakers. Oren said it is conceivable that the US could stop sharing intelligence and halt joint development of systems like the Iron Dome. Yaakov Katz, a former Jerusalem Post editor, warned that arms sales could be blocked and sanctions proposed. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lost his parliamentary majority in elections held a week before the US midterms. His main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, does not have an outright majority and may need to cooperate with Arab parties. Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats party, said Israel does not have time to waste in replacing Netanyahu.

Ukraine responded to the election results with relative silence. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s relationship with Trump has been strained for weeks. Trump has demanded Zelensky be replaced and sought energy deals benefiting Russia. Kyiv has taken the position of waiting for a post-Trump world. Deputy President’s Office Head Sergiy Kyslytsia pledged on Ukrainian TV that the country would continue to develop normal relations with whoever is in office. He said Ukraine will seek Patriot interceptors and navigate the new Congress. A deputy in Zelensky’s office noted that the president was watching the coverage with a beer and popcorn. Kyiv has calculated it cannot depend on Washington after months of hostility. There is a risk that Russian President Vladimir Putin will use the time before the 2028 election to pursue the best possible outcome in the war. Putin has not yet used Trump to secure a major battlefield win.

The new Congress will have new tools to challenge Trump’s foreign policy decisions. However, he retains considerable freedom to act abroad. World leaders are watching to see if the defeat will make him more willing to compromise or more determined to get his way. In Iran, talks have picked up in the past week, with Qatari mediators circulating proposals. In Israel, the erosion of bipartisan support is accelerating. In Ukraine, the focus remains on securing arms and money while managing a difficult relationship with the White House.