SportsLine Model Backs Bills, Giants in NFL Week 9
A simulation-based model recommends Buffalo to cover against Minnesota and New York to beat Philadelphia, citing specific team statistics and recent performance trends.
By Yasmin Farouk ·
SportsLine’s betting model entered the ninth week of the 2026 NFL season with a 60-51 record on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. The service, which simulates every game 10,000 times, released its selections for the upcoming slate of games. The model identifies specific statistical anomalies and rest advantages to inform its betting advice.
For the Sunday Night Football matchup, the model’s machine learning algorithm favors Baker Mayfield to stay under 18.5 pass completions. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the Chicago Bears in a contest featuring two former Oklahoma Sooners and No. 1 overall draft picks. Chicago recently defeated the Seattle Seahawks, while Tampa Bay beat the Atlanta Falcons without completing a single pass. The model rates this prop bet as a five-star pick.
In Monday Night Football, the Buffalo Bills visit the Minnesota Vikings. Both teams hold a 6-1 record. Buffalo ranks first in scoring offense, while Minnesota leads the league in scoring defense. The Bills allow the 24th most points in the league, and the Vikings rank 27th in scoring. SportsLine expert R.J. White, who holds a 39-17-3 record in Vikings games over his last 59 ATS picks, backs the Bills to cover a 2.5-point spread. White also leans toward the under on the 46.5 total points line.
White noted that the Bills’ previous game against the Baltimore Ravens was disrupted by an injury to Lamar Jackson on the first snap. He argued that it is difficult to assess a defense facing an emergency quarterback. White pointed out that the Vikings have managed only six offensive touchdowns since Week 2. He stated that a good Lions offense scored 19 points against Minnesota, and he expects Buffalo to reach 20 points.
The model also projects that the New York Giants will cover a three-point spread against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. Larry Hartstein, who is 11-4 and plus 646 points over his last 15 NFL ATS picks, made the selection. Hartstein cited the Eagles’ recent inefficiency, noting they average 4.2 yards per play while giving up 5.9 yards per play over their last three games. He called this the worst combination in the NFL. Hartstein also mentioned that head coach Nick Sirianni announced no changes to the offensive staff or quarterback position.
The Giants arrive at the game after a bye week. Hartstein acknowledged that running back Cam Skattebo may sit out with a hamstring injury. He added that Devin Singletary is a capable fill-in for Skattebo. The model’s broader analysis suggests that teams with rest disadvantages can still perform well, citing the Denver Broncos’ 7-2 record against the spread since 2024 when playing with less rest than their opponent.
For fantasy football lineups, the model projects Dolphins quarterback Malik Willis as a top-12 fantasy option this week. The service’s DFS optimizer, which uses data from the Advanced-Data Projection Model, identifies Rams running back Kyren Williams and Saints wide receiver Chris Olave as top picks for Sunday’s slate. The model claims to have outperformed human experts in fantasy rankings over recent seasons.
The model has built a five-team parlay for Week 9 that pays nearly 30-1. One leg of that parlay backs the Over on 44.5 total points in the Seattle Cardinals game. The model forecasts 52 combined points, with the over connecting 67% of the time. The service also highlights a trend for the New Orleans Saints, who are 0-8 against the spread following a bye week. This statistic may influence betting decisions for the Saints’ upcoming game against the Cleveland Browns.
