Polls show 60,000 Republican gap in Polk County despite early vote shift

Governor Ron DeSantis pointed to voting records in Polk County to explain why Florida remains a competitive battleground four days before the general election. The governor noted that his home county holds 60,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats, yet early voting numbers there have not matched previous cycles. He suggested that this lag in the Republican base could produce a tighter race on Election Day than standard projections indicate.

Political scientists say the geographic distribution of voters explains the current data. Susan MacManus, a professor at the University of South Florida, observed that rural areas in North Florida vote Republican, while urban centers in South Florida and along the I-4 corridor lean Democratic. She stated that this geographic split means early voting trends do not always predict the final statewide winner.

Aubrey Jewett, an associate professor at the University of Central Florida, highlighted a behavioral shift among Republicans regarding voting methods. She explained that many Republicans have stopped using mail-in ballots. Instead, they tend to wait until Election Day to cast their votes, a pattern she said has become common since Donald Trump entered the national political scene.

Jewett provided historical context by noting that DeSantis won his 2022 reelection by 19 points and Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election by 13 points. She described Florida as a red state with varying shades of red. For a Democrat to win a statewide office, Jewett argued, the party must achieve near-total turnout among its base, keep some Republicans home, and flip undecided voters.

MacManus cited recent polling data that shows conflicting margins in the gubernatorial race between Ashley Jolly and Doug Donalds. Some polls show Donalds leading by one or two percentage points, while others place his advantage between seven and 10 points. These ranges suggest the outcome will depend on turnout rates in the final hours of voting.

Early voting remains open in most counties through this weekend. Voters can also cast ballots in person on Nov. 3 at local polling locations.