Trump's 2024 voting coalition fractures as midterm race approaches

The voting groups that helped Donald Trump win the presidency in 2024 are now his weakest supporters. A new poll reveals a sharp drop in approval among Latino voters, young adults, and working-class whites. These shifts put Republican congressional candidates at a disadvantage in the elections held next week.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows Trump's net approval among Latino voters has fallen from negative 22 to negative 38. It has dropped from negative 28 to negative 53 among those ages 18 to 34. Black respondents have moved from negative 55 to negative 67. Overall approval among all registered voters has declined from negative 7 to negative 19.

The decline has reached the Republican base. Approval among self-described Trump voters has slid from a net positive 85 in 2025 to a net positive 65. Net approval in the South has turned negative, falling from positive 2 to negative 20. This erosion occurs as Republicans face a turnout challenge in tight races.

Democrats have a 10-point interest advantage over Republicans. In close contests, the party that mobilizes more voters usually wins. Trump is not on the ballot, but his popularity influences voter engagement. The survey found that 44% of respondents worry about Trump operating beyond constitutional power if Republicans control Congress. Only 28% fear Democratic Socialists if Democrats take control. Both sides worry that Congress will not do enough to lower prices.

Economic approval has suffered the most damage. Trump left his first term with a positive 7 rating on the economy. He began his second term with negative approval. By April 2026, his net economic rating hit negative 31. This is the lowest level for any president measured since Barack Obama. Economic disapproval has reached 65%.

The poll highlights growing frustration with inflation and immigration enforcement. Disapproval of Trump's handling of inflation has risen. The survey also notes increased disapproval following incidents where Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers shot Americans. Economic optimism among Republicans has dropped 22 points. It is now the lowest for Republicans since the Biden administration.

Blue-collar workers show a mixed picture. Their net economic approval of Trump has fallen 22 points to negative 15. However, their overall presidential approval remains positive 6. They still prefer a Republican-controlled Congress by 21 points. This support has weakened from 33 points in July. The survey was conducted from October 14 to 18. It interviewed 1,000 registered voters nationwide. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.