CPI Forecast: 0.3% Monthly Rise Amid Fuel Price Easing

Consumer price data released Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET will reveal how much American households paid for goods in October. The report serves as a key indicator of monetary policy direction ahead of the Federal Reserve's next meeting.

Bloomberg surveyed economists who project a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the consumer price index. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy categories, is expected to rise by 0.2%. These figures suggest a slight deceleration from the previous month.

In September, the CPI rose 0.6% from August. Prices in that same month were 3.7% higher than they were in September 2025. The October report will not include a year-over-year comparison because the government shutdown forced the agency to skip the October 2025 data collection cycle.

Fuel costs played a major role in recent price movements. The AAA national average for regular gasoline stood at $4.41 per gallon on Oct. 1. By the end of that month, the average had fallen to $4.18. This represents a drop of more than 5% in a single month.

The decline coincided with the midterm elections. In November, prices continued to trend downward, reaching $4.00 per gallon on Monday. While lower than the October peak, this price point remains well above pre-conflict levels.

The conflict in Iran, which began in February, has distorted energy markets. Regular gas prices are up 40% due to the war. Diesel fuel prices have climbed 70% since the start of the year. Diesel is a critical input for transportation, and higher costs often ripple through the supply chain for groceries and other goods.

Citigroup economists noted that airfares are stabilizing and falling. They also expect limited pass-through of higher energy costs to other goods prices. Shelter inflation and services prices may also show signs of slowing in the new data.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, warned that the current price floor may not hold. International Energy Agency members have released 400 million barrels of crude and related products into the market to manage the supply shock. Restocking these inventories will likely support prices once the Middle East conflict subsides.

The Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates for the second time this year. The bank's next two-day meeting is scheduled for Dec. 8 and 9. The next inflation reading follows on Dec. 10. Market odds for a December rate hike stood at 85% on Monday afternoon.

Bank of America economists described the expected report as a cooler start to the fall season. JPMorgan estimates that memory costs will rise more than 400% from the end of 2024 through the end of 2026. Tech companies are spending hundreds of billions on data centers, driving up equipment costs that are being passed to consumers. Apple and other firms have already raised prices in response to these input costs.